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No I'm not!

In the case where a losing door is revealled the odds are

1.) 1/3 if you stick with the original door.
2.) 2/3 if you switch doors. This is because revealling a losing door is not new information.

In the case where one of the two non-selected doors is randomly revealled the odds are

1.) 1/3 if you stick with the original door.
2.) 1/2 if you switch doors.
3.) 1/6 of the time the winning door will randomly be revealed.
3a.) Proof. The winning door will be the selected door 1/3 of the time. So there is only a 2/3 chance that the winning door is behind the two non-selected doors. In the random selection the odds are 1/2 that the winning door is revealed so the odds of randomly selecting the winning door is 1/2 * 1/3 = 1/6.

Thank you! I know this is correct.



Give me rhythm or give me death!


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