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That's wrong!

Indeed if Monty flips a coin to determine which remaining door to open, then he has given you no information (unless he reveals the 100K and then the game is over). If he does flip a coin, your odds of sticking or switching are the same- 1 out of 2.

Nope - your odds are still 1/3 if you stick. Which is equal to 1/2 of 2/3 of time when the winning door is not revealled.


Almost all the confusion comes from people who are assuming he has randomly selected. And given their assumption, they are right.

Nope nothing is going to change your odds of winning if you stick. If you stick you will win 1/3 of the time regardless of the information revealled. If you change you will win 2/3 of the time regardless of the information revealled.

Odds of winning

stick always - 1/3
stick 1/2 the time - 1/2
always change - 2/3

If one wants to win they should always change.


Give me rhythm or give me death!

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