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I don't know if other people noticed this figure, but in the Consumer Electronics Daily posted a few days ago, there was an intriguing statement*** Jeff Skillen, DTS Entertainment vp-business development, said there now were more than 55 models of DVD-Audio players from 19 manufacturers on market priced as low as $199 and all the way up to $20,000.
Citing Matsushita data, he said there were 1.2 million DVD-Audio players in U.S. at end of 2002 but stressed that DVD-Audio discs also were playable in 60 million DVD-Video-compatible devices (including DVD players, PlayStation 2 and Xbox game consoles and DVD
computer drives). "By end of 2004, he predicted, "44% of all DVD devices will be capable of playing DVD-Audio."Does anybody know of these Matsushita figures, and why they assume almost half DVD devices to be DVD-Audio compatible in less than 2 years?
Do they mean the models being sold at that point in time, or installed base?Best
Eric
Follow Ups:
Hi.Can't help you varify the projection, but I'm sure the percentage of new DVD's with DVD-A capability will end up near 100%. The microchips needed to do implement DVD-A only cost a few dollars each when sold in bulk. The slow rollout of DVD-A capable players merely reflects the fact that initial circutry design and manufacturing capability are heavily front lond loaded corporate expenditures. It takes a while for all the players to allocate the capital and implement the process.
Once that is behind them (and this is the year that happens) adding DVD-A capability won't be any more expensive than adding a racing stripe to a Mustang and calling it a GT. It will take awhile for the new formats to penetrate the auto and portable player markets but new players will eventually be rolled out in these areas as well.
The real battle will be selling the software. IMO, the new high bit density formats won't take off until the disks cost the same as CD's. This will take a few more years. Once that happens, consumers will buy the disks with the music they like in the highest quality format they have equipment to play it on.
DVD-A and SACD will both "win" but sales of each will always be roughly proportionate to the installed base of players. Unless SACD does very well in the auto or portable player markets, my guess is sales will end up around 90% DVD-A and 10% SACD. DVD players have been the hottest selling consumer electronic product on the market for a couple of years now but SACD players have a one year head start.
CD's will outsell both at least a decade, until all the old players have broken (and don't think they aren't designed to wear out).Frankly, I haven't listened to either of the new formats- I don't think differences in their sound quality is relevant to thier market potential. Betamax was superior to VHS but it got crushed when the big multinationals rolled out the corporate $'s.
*** this is the year that happens ***do you mean 2003 or 2004 ?
Best
I think all of the mid-fi audio companies will have their inital DVD-A products out by the end of 2003. Early adopter Pioneer will be on its third generation.Most audiophile companies, which tend to be smaller with less capital, will wait to produce true audiophile products until they see sales of their redbood CD players sharply declining, although some are trickling out with astronomical prices.
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